80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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“If its so understandably accurate and usable of a statistical model, why then does no one here agree with it.”
Coming from someone who does not understand that at-or-less than 8 dL means at-or-less than 8dL I think answering that question is unnecessary. Readers can make of this what they will.
Otherwise, do you dispute the patients whose records indicated they are deceased are…what? Relocated to another city in a secret patient relocation program?
Marvin Shilmer
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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“However, they didn't report the number of patients in the 15-18 y.o. range (in either the 'BT' or the 'no BT' groups). There's no way to KNOW for sure how large these sub-populations were if it wasn't reported, which is critical to consider to avoid errors when extrapolating Worldwide.”
Does not matter.
Inclusion in the control group was dependent on honoring a refusal of red cell transfusion, whether that refusal came from a mature minor, parent, guardian, or a wooden Indian standing outside a saloon.
My extrapolation is of deaths due to refusing red cell transfusion.
My extrapolation assumes deaths due to refusing red cells transfusion outside New Zealand’s healthcare system is no greater than deaths due to refusing red cells transfusion inside New Zealand’s healthcare system. Given the state of New Zealand’s healthcare system, I think that’s a pretty conservative assumption.
Oh, and that question you asked is a red herring. Read.
Marvin Shilmer
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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“If you were to present this statistic in a court of law going against the WTS. would it uphold itself as evidence or would the lawyers for the WTS. succeed in completely smashing it to smithereens?”
The extrapolation would withstand criticism for this simple reason: It’s based on documented cases of mortality due to blood refusal and it makes conservative assumptions to avoid overstatement.
The latter is something you seem to overlook.
Marvin Shilmer
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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"Marvin … Your comments in the previous post use heartfelt but emotive reasoning to bolster your research..."
Steve2,
Respectfully, what you write is presumptive assertion, and complete hogwash.
Not one word I’ve said above is presented as emotional bolster to my research. What idiocy!
My response you speak to was in answer to a specific question/comment from Simon. Guess what? My answer to THAT question is personal hence the only answer I could give is personal.
But that has nothing whatsoever to do with whether my extrapolation of deaths due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine is somehow overstated or baseless. My extrapolation is based on data before me and assumptions necessary for any extrapolation. These assumptions are stated. These assumptions have not been demonstrated as anything other than conservative.
Now, if you don’t mind, stop with the presumption. I’d rather stay on topic. The topic is not my emotional state. All sane people have emotion. I’m no exception.
Marvin Shilmer
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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“Again too narrow of base model .
“For example what about people who've suffered extreme blood loss due to traumatic accident or blood infection complications, where a total blood transfusion was required.”
Finkelstein,
That is the sort of response I don’t understand in this discussion. What part of at-or-less than 8 dL of blood don’t you get?
There is nothing narrow about it! If a patient had a blood count at-or-less than 8 dL and they were at least 15 years old then they were included.
Guess what that means? It means a trauma patient who’s at least 15-years-old and who’s lost enough blood that their count is at-or-less than 8 dL is included as suffering “extreme anemia”.
Guess what else that means? It means a trauma patient who’s at least 15-years-old and who’s not lost enough blood that their count is at-or-less than 8 dL is not included as suffering “extreme anemia”.
Marvin Shilmer
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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“If that is true and not hyperbole then you will have current hard facts of recent data to point to and incorporate into your model.”
Simon,
My statement was said of the world I live in. As I said, in the world I live in people are dying all around me and I’m tired of it.
This is not hyperbole. I’ve sat in room after room over my years with parents, siblings and children mourning the death of children, siblings and parents who succumbed to death refusing blood with their organ systems shutting down for lack of oxygenation.
To me this is not academic. To me this is as real as it gets. It’s the world I live in, and long ago I tired of sitting by watching it happen without doing more about it. It shames me to look backward at those years thinking I could have done more. Hence a long time ago I decided to do something about it, and to put my money and time where my mouth is at.
There is a reason why incident of JWs dying over blood refusal seems rare. I have shared this reason in various ways in this discussion, and no one has refuted this. The math demonstrates why this appearance exists. But it’s a false appearance. Thousand of JWs have died due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine and for one I’m not going to be silent about it.
If in your world JWs are not dying due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine then I’m glad for you. But I don’t live in that world.
Marvin Shilmer
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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“Yes, but it could be composed in a number of ways:
“2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1 gives a different view of the data than
“10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9 e.g. date range picked for best effect (bad surgeon one year? bus crash?) or
“10, 7, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 e.g. problem in the past more than recently”
Simon,
I understand your question, but if we assume either of the extremes you cite it would not change the hard count and it would not suggest we’d find something different over the span of 1961 to 2007, which is the period of my extrapolation.
If we assume the earlier years had higher mortalities because of the state of medical science in the treatment of severe anemia among patients refusing blood then using the mitigated average would be make for a conservative extrapolation, meaning the extrapolation would not be an overstatement but, if anything, and understatement.
If we assume the earlier years had higher mortalities because of the then state of Watchtower doctrine prohibiting more blood products then using the mitigated average would make for a conservative extrapolation, meaning the extrapolation would not be an overstatement but, if anything, and understatement.
I checked Beliaev’s other work using the same data set and none spell out the annual value of deaths.
Marvin Shilmer
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
-
“That the 7.5 million current / ~30 million total-ever JWs have the same increased risk of death as the 19 out of 103 patients who refused blood at the NZ hospitals used in the study.”
My extrapolation assumes people the world over have no more risk of dying due to severe anemia than the population of New Zealanders, and compared to the rest of the world New Zealanders have above average access to healthcare.
“I find the math approach a little simplistic as it doesn't cater for all the changing circumstances throughout the years (either belief, legalities or medical treatment options).”
That simplistic math you speak of assumes the most conservative of multiple factors each time multiple factors arise. In the case of “changing circumstances” two primary ones are the state of medical science (it’s better today than any point since 1961) and the state of Watchtower doctrine (in relation to blood it’s better today than anytime since 1961). Yet the math I’ve used is based on outcomes the result of the most current medical science and Watchtower teaching. That is to say, I’ve not made any regressive adjustments based on yesterday’s reduced medical science or yesterday’s Watchtower teaching, each of which would have driven my extrapolated value higher.
The two items you cite are in each case items where my extrapolation represents a conservative estimate.
Marvin Shilmer
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
-
“I'd be interested in the distribution of patients. I know we have 1.9 per year as an average but was it consistent or was there a bad couple of years?”
Simon,
A 10-year period is a healthy chunk of time to mitigate extremes upward or downward.
In response to your question, unless I missed something, the study does not spell out deaths per year. But Beliaev has written other articles using the same data set. I’ll consult those when I have time to see if what you inquire of is spelled out in them.
Marvin Shilmer
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
-
“Surely you accounted for the differing legal policies that exist Worldwide for the protections of minors, who are protected in some lands by court order at different ages? If not, why was the age of '15' used in the study, when '18 yrs old' would've been a more conservative choice more applicable to Worldwide?
“And hopefully you remembered to account for those baptized JW's who are under 15 y.o., but are nevertheless included in the total Worldwide JW headcount (the figure you used was 7.4 million in 2011) which you used to calculate your guesstimate?”
My extrapolation assumes none of the JWs you mentioned died the result of refusing blood. This is another conservative aspect of my presentation.
Marvin Shilmer
